Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.023759 0.026964 0.030449 0.034522 0.039153 0.044258 0.050314
2025-05-25 0.018176 0.022442 0.027489 0.033909 0.041868 0.051426 0.063801
2025-06-01 0.015564 0.020347 0.026342 0.034420 0.045045 0.058579 0.077183
2025-06-08 0.013447 0.018418 0.024946 0.034169 0.046903 0.063924 0.088509
2025-06-15 0.012256 0.017480 0.024627 0.035147 0.050301 0.071432 0.103304
2025-06-22 0.010644 0.015733 0.022948 0.033963 0.050436 0.074282 0.111662
2025-06-29 0.009526 0.014546 0.021902 0.033512 0.051480 0.078402 0.122124
2025-07-06 0.008410 0.013231 0.020511 0.032358 0.051282 0.080546 0.129650
2025-07-13 0.007998 0.012947 0.020637 0.033524 0.054741 0.088563 0.147124
2025-07-20 0.007561 0.012572 0.020570 0.034350 0.057690 0.095977 0.164264
2025-07-27 0.007217 0.012309 0.020648 0.035396 0.061065 0.104338 0.183733
2025-08-03 0.006695 0.011694 0.020081 0.035283 0.062427 0.109377 0.197851
2025-08-10 0.006242 0.011167 0.019634 0.035365 0.064187 0.115351 0.214403
2025-08-17 0.005733 0.010497 0.018879 0.034832 0.064796 0.119339 0.227730
2025-08-24 0.005436 0.010179 0.018717 0.035352 0.067366 0.127089 0.248853
2025-08-31 0.005058 0.009676 0.018171 0.035095 0.068428 0.132083 0.265074
2025-09-07 0.004880 0.009535 0.018284 0.036100 0.072004 0.142178 0.292388
2025-09-14 0.004444 0.008855 0.017310 0.034883 0.071059 0.143303 0.301466
2025-09-21 0.004137 0.008404 0.016741 0.034420 0.071582 0.147380 0.317047
2025-09-28 0.003780 0.007818 0.015857 0.033234 0.070495 0.148048 0.325362
2025-10-05 0.003699 0.007795 0.016108 0.034432 0.074542 0.159783 0.358996
2025-10-12 0.003586 0.007697 0.016192 0.035280 0.077902 0.170332 0.390987
2025-10-19 0.003501 0.007648 0.016376 0.036356 0.081853 0.182498 0.427854